Journalist
Posted:
- The ETH/BTC chart has been in a long-term downtrend.
- In comparison, the strength of Bitcoin was clear and is likely to continue.
Since October, Bitcoin [BTC] has rallied by an impressive 57.5% as of press time. In the same period, Ethereum [ETH] gains measured 48.34%. The difference is not much, but ETH has been underperforming for close to a year now.
This means that during times when Bitcoin runs higher, Ethereum doesn’t achieve equivalent or higher gains. During periods of a downturn, Ethereum prices suffer more than Bitcoin’s.
Is this trend likely to reverse?
Technical analysis of the ETH/BTC chart underlined gloom
Source: ETH/BTC on TradingView
The ETH/BTC chart on the one-day timeframe highlighted the downtrend that has been present since early June. The inference was that ETH just wasn’t able to keep up in terms of performance. And the story doesn’t end there.
The zone of resistance highlighted at the 0.055 region represented a key resistance zone that ETH bulls will need to breach to reverse their fortunes. However, the market structure was bearish.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was tested on 10th November. It was followed by a rapid reversal.
A move below the 0.051 mark would signal that ETH/BTC was headed much further lower. If that happens, traders and investors could exit the ETH market if a higher timeframe bearish market structure break occurs.
Assuming Bitcoin climbs above the $45k key resistance but ETH/BTC falls, participants could look to shift their funds to BTC to ride the trend higher.
Assessing sell pressure on ETH and BTC
A sign that sell pressure is imminent on an asset is if we spot large inflows to exchanges. If that happens, the exchange reserve for the asset would shoot skyward. In the case of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, this has not yet occurred.
The BTC exchange reserve has consistently trended lower since June. Despite the downtrend, there was a noticeable spike from 5th December to 12th December. Just after this spike, Bitcoin prices tumbled from $43.7k to $41.2k.
Source: CryptoQuant
The Ethereum reserves saw less volatility. It, too, was in a downtrend and has been since February 2023.
Ethereum saw a small spike in the reserve between 11th-13th December, but the increase came during and after the price drop. This suggested that some holders panicked due to what they perceived as a shift in trend, while BTC’s inflows preceded the fall.
Source: CryptoQuant
The inference was Bitcoin reserves and flow could be a more accurate gauge of the next price direction than Ethereum.
However, this was based only on the recent spike, and is not a practical finding with a large sample size. Nevertheless it is something to look out for.
What is the sentiment of BTC and ETH like?
A look at the social volume for both crypto assets revealed that, as expected, Bitcoin’s social volume was far higher than Ethereum’s. Even so, their trends were pretty similar. This could be because of their price performances being closely interrelated.
Source: Santiment
When Bitcoin rallies, so does Ethereum, but just not as much.
The MVRV ratio for Bitcoin and Ethereum also showed similar trends, but their magnitudes were vastly different. At press time, BTC stood at 41.17% while ETH was at 26.45%.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-24
Both values were at their respective six-month highs despite the recent dip in prices. The conclusion was that both assets were overvalued, with Bitcoin holders being at a greater profit, and hence, the happier.
It remains to be seen if these holders choose to realize their profits en masse and cause a large wave of selling.
