The trader who accurately called the May 2021 crypto market crash is predicting a price pattern for Bitcoin (BTC) in the current market cycle using a model with historical reliability.
Pseudonymous analyst Dave the Wave tells his 145,100 followers on the social media platform X that he expects Bitcoin to continue to trade within the upper and lower bounds of his version of the logarithmic growth curve (LGC).
The LGC is an investing model that aims to forecast Bitcoin’s market cycle highs and lows while filtering out short-term volatility.
According to Dave the Wave, it makes much more sense for Bitcoin to continue trading within the LGC in the long term as opposed to invalidating the model that has stood the test of time so far.
“The speculators in this space can roughly be divided into those that believe in diminishing returns and those that don’t. Adherents to the DM (diminishing marginal returns) principle would roughly agree that price will track the channel as sketched in the first chart.
Those rejecting the principle see price transgressing it as in something like the second chart, and possibly breaking to both sides. The first seems a lot more rational to me for at least it has something empirical and historical to go on.”
The analyst first shares a chart suggesting that BTC will print higher highs and higher lows over the years while trading inside the LGC.
Dave the Wave’s second chart shows BTC breaking above the upper bound of the LGC before witnessing a steep corrective move that sends the crypto king below the lower bound of the model.
The trader also uses the Fibonacci extensions to predict a $180,000 price target for BTC in 2025. Fibonacci extensions are used in technical analysis to estimate profit targets and price pullbacks. They are based on Fibonacci ratios.
“BTC Fib extension gives target of $180,000.”
Bitcoin is trading for $51,966 at time of writing, up 4% in the past seven days.
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Generated Image: Midjourney
