Polymarket saw one of its biggest World Cup trading shocks after a mystery account turned about $4 million into roughly $9 million in profit by betting against Spain.
Sport Bets on Polymarket
The trade paid out after Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw, turning what looked like a low-probability outcome into a major prediction-market win.
The result was surprising on the field before it became a crypto-market story. Cape Verde was playing in its first World Cup, while Spain entered the match as the reigning European champion and one of the favorites to win the tournament. Instead, Cape Verde defended for 90 minutes and earned a historic point, with goalkeeper Vozinha becoming one of the standout figures of the match.
That upset created a huge swing on Polymarket. According to Lookonchain, the winning account, known as “fishalive,” reportedly placed two large bets: one on Spain not winning and another on Cape Verde staying within 2.5 goals. When the match ended goalless, both positions paid out. The wallet redeemed about $4.7 million on the Spain market and $8.5 million on the spread market, leaving roughly $9 million in one-day profit.
Another Trader Loses $1M on Spain Bet
At the same time, the result punished traders who treated Spain as close to certain. Another Polymarket user, “betoor619,” lost nearly $1 million after backing a Spain win when the market priced the team at about 92% implied odds.
This matters because Polymarket combines sports betting behavior with onchain transparency. Traders can operate under pseudonyms, but their positions and payouts are visible publicly. Because of that setup, “fishalive” is now likely to attract attention from traders trying to understand whether the win came from sharp analysis, extreme risk-taking, or simply one of the World Cup’s biggest shocks.
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