Alex Krüger, an economist and crypto trader, holds a positive outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and predicts a strong finish for both cryptocurrencies by the end of the year. Krüger’s expectations of a bull market in early August, following a 90% interest rate hike, are intriguing.
Fed’s Monetary Policy Shift
Krüger, who has amassed a following of over 153,900 on Twitter, believes that the Federal Reserve is approaching the conclusion of its historic series of interest rate hikes, aimed at addressing inflation. With approximately 90% of the hikes already implemented, the markets are poised for a significant transformation. The economist argues that the Fed’s past mistakes, combined with a cooling economy and declining inflation, increase the likelihood of a policy pivot when new data emerges.
The Fed has delivered 20 x 25bps rate hikes in its fastest and most agressive hiking cycle in history.
Which means at least 90% of the Fed hikes are behind (if not all). That to me is all that matters, and makes it easy to stay long. This has been my view all year.
My base case…
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) May 29, 2023
August: A Bullish Month for BTC?
His analysis suggests that the markets may start rallying as early as August, well ahead of the anticipated December pivot. This early surge, referred to as “front-running,” is driven by the expectation that the Fed will adjust its course. As the economy cools and inflation subsides, Krüger foresees a bullish trend emerging, setting the stage for a potentially prosperous end to the year.
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Going Long on BTC and ETH
Displaying confidence in his predictions, he further discloses that he has taken long positions on BTC and ETH. These positions reflect his belief that these leading crypto will experience substantial upward movements. No doubt his optimism stems from the market’s current challenges, including investors selling on rallies and volume hindering Bitcoin’s ability to surpass the crucial $30,000 level. However, if Bitcoin breaks through this level and avoids a bearish reversal pattern, a significant surge may be on the horizon.
While he remains bullish overall, he warns of potential risks and market weaknesses. Should Bitcoin retest the $26,000 mark, Krüger advises caution, as this may lead to further downside. Traders are advised to closely monitor the market and consider de-risking if Bitcoin experiences a significant drop.
Final thoughts
Economist Alex Krüger’s positive outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum has captured the attention of market participants. The economist expects a bull run due to the Federal Reserve’s possible policy shift and good market circumstances.
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“Despite sticky core inflation, betting on the market upside by year-end is still a good bet.”
However, it’s always a good idea to do your own research before investing.
