- Rubble-USDT pair reacts to Wagner paramilitary group going rogue against the Russian government.
- A look at the historic significance of politically charged events on USDT volumes.
Economics and global politics have clearly been having an impact. That is why it is not surprising that the latest happenings in Russia somehow had an impact on Rubble-USDT volumes.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a perfect example of just how political factors can influence fiat and crypto performance. That has particularly been the situation for the Russian Rubble and USDT currency pair.
A recent Kaiko analysis looks at how Rubble and Tether USDT volumes faired during noteworthy events involving Russia. The analysis takes into account a recent volume spike observed right after the Wagner revolt.
The Wagner Group, a private military group based in Russia recently rebelled against the Russian government. The situation once again brought the spotlight back onto Russia and was likely enough to spoof Russians into getting concerned. Most people think of their safety and financial situation under such circumstances.
A weaker Russia would likely weaken the Rubble. The Wagner Group’s revolt caused a heightened state political-economic uncertainty which may have forced many to buy into other assets. Tether’s USDT represents one of the easiest routes especially after the sanctions imposed on Russia by NATO and the U.S.
This is not the first time that we have seen a surge in Rubble-USDT volumes but it is the second highest volume spike since January 2023. Rubble-USDT volumes have been relatively low since then. The largest volume recorded for the currency pair in the last two years was in early February 2022 at the start of the conflict.
Where is the liquidity flowing?
Many of the Rubble-USDT trades might be taking advantage of the expected loss of value for the Rubble. Meanwhile, there are those exiting Rubble positions in favor of assets that are better-placed to hold value especially during turmoil.
The volume spike was initially observed on 23 June. This is the same date that Tether, the company behind the USDT stablecoin launched Tether Gold. A digital token designed to track the value of gold at a 1:1 ratio. Gold has been the best long-term hedge against inflation and volatility in the long-term.
USDT inflows and outflows were highest in mid-June. However, they have since dropped back to the lower monthly range.
Source: Glassnode
The volumes between the Rubble and USDT represent a small proportion of total USDT volumes. Nevertheless, it paints a rough image of how events on the political-economic spectrum may impact prices.
