Crypto analyst Onchained recently provided valuable insights into an important metric that can be used to gauge the future trajectory of Bitcoin. The analyst suggested there was no cause to worry at the moment but highlighted what to watch out for to know the right time to exit the market.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders NUPL Turns Negative
In a blog post, the analyst noted that the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for Bitcoin’s short-term holders recently turned negative. The analyst added that this signals fear among this category of investors, which is very much likely given Bitcoin’s current price action. The last time this trend occurred was shortly after the Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, with Bitcoin dropping from $49,000 to $38,000 following that occurrence.
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Source: CryptoQuant
While the short-term holders’ NUPL turning red again suggests that a significant price decline may be on the horizon, the analyst remarked that this price level may simply represent a significant support line. The real cause for concern might be when the NUPL for mid-term holders also turns negative. “It could indicate widespread market fear and serve as a crucial risk management indicator for exiting the market,” the analyst claimed.
It is worth noting that the short-term holder’s NUPL being negative means they are currently seeing an unrealized loss in their investments. This could trigger a wave of sell-offs among these investors, mainly because of fear that Bitcoin’s price could further dip. However, based on the analyst’s analysis, this might not significantly lower Bitcoin’s price.
Instead, market speculators should be more worried about the PUNL of mid-term holders (those who have been holding Bitcoin for 3 to 6 months). The PUNL also turning negative will “suggest widespread pessimism or negative sentiment.” This could lead to massive selling pressure on Bitcoin’s price as this category of investors might also offload their holdings out of fear.
The Worst May Already Be Over
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez had previously shared a similar analysis to Onchained’s, noting that Bitcoin short-term holder’s (STH) realized price was at $59,800. The analyst warned back then that Bitcoin dropping below this level could trigger “notable Bitcoin price corrections.” Following his prediction, Bitcoin fell below $59,800, dropping to as low as $57,000.
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However, the flagship crypto has since then recovered nicely above $60,000. Although Bitcoin is still showing signs of a bearish outlook, its quick recovery above $60,000 suggests that the worst might be over, and all the crypto token needs right now is a catalyst to spark a continuation of its bull run.
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s co-founder and former CEO, also confirmed this belief, noting that Bitcoin has already found its local bottom. However, he predicted that Bitcoin will likely have a “range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.”
BTC bulls push price above $63,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Kiplinger, chart from Tradingview.com
