Journalist
Posted:
- An analyst foresees ETH outperforming BTC in January.
- A shift in ETF flows and seasonality data supported this outlook.
Ethereum [ETH] could outperform Bitcoin [BTC] in January if the market shift seen in the past two days continues.
According to crypto analyst and investor Michael van de Poppe, ETH’s outperformance could be likely due to outflows in U.S. spot BTC ETFs while ETH recorded inflows.
For context, BTC ETFs have seen four consecutive daily outflows, unlike ETH, which saw positive inflows worth $183M in the past two days.
This could be considered a positive outlook for ETH relative to BTC in the short term.
Source: ASXN
ETH to outperform BTC?
Poppe added that the ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks ETH’s relative price performance against BTC, could cross 0.04 in January.
At press time, the ratio was at 0.033, so a move to 0.04, as predicted by Poppe, would translate to ETH rallying against BTC by 20%.
Source: ETH/BTC, TradingView
However, the 0.04 has been a short-term resistance since November. The previous recoveries, which also triggered the altcoin season momentum, were stopped at the roadblock.
However, cracking the hurdle could accelerate ETH outperformance to the trendline resistance.
Although the two days’ data of ETF flows might not be enough to predict a medium shift correctly, seasonality data leaned towards Poppe projection.
Since 2017, ETH’s strongest price performance has always occurred in Q1. Coinglass data showed that, on average, ETH saw 92% gains in Q1. Out of the past six years, ETH has only closed two years in red.
From a monthly perspective, ETH saw the best rallies in January, with an average of 23% gains, further reinforcing the potential bullish outlook for early 2025.
Source: Coinglass
Read Ethereum [ETH] Price Prediction 2024-2025
On the price charts, the immediate level that could kick off ETH’s bullish reversal was the previous support and range lows at $3.5K.
Despite the positive outlook, as shown by the price being above key moving averages, the $3.5K could attract more traders.
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView
