Popular macro expert Lyn Alden believes that a peak of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) during the next market expansion would be an underwhelming outcome.
In a new interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden says that the rise or fall of global liquidity is a solid indicator of Bitcoin’s cycles.
While Alden stresses the correlation between liquidity and BTC, she notes that the metric does not offer any indication as to how high or low BTC’s price could go.
“Bitcoin is highly correlated with liquidity in terms of direction, but there’s very little way to judge a price from it. It’s not really useful for magnitude, so it’s not one of those stock-to-flow models where you can say, ‘Okay, at this date it should be this price.’
I think that a lot of that is really hard to judge.”
Alden predicts that a “spectrum” of 2024 and 2025 will be “positive for liquidity” and positive for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. She goes on to lay out a scenario where Bitcoin rallies by about 340% from current prices before the end of 2025.
“My base-case expectation is for new all-time highs, hopefully over $100,000, so hopefully six figures. But then literally that range… that range is entirely reasonable. I’d actually be hesitant to guess where that ends up.
I think that something like $100,000 plus would be kind of disappointing for a bull market cycle, especially after the prior bull market cycle was on the disappointing end, too.
So I’d kind of hope for $200,000 or more over the next two-plus years.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $45,595, up over 6% in the last 24 hours.
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